Archive
Three new analyses are added every week. Here you will find all previous ones – searchable by company, ticker, sector or valuation method. Prices and figures on the cards reflect the date of each analysis.
Q3 beat clearly and the data center grew 78%. But the Q4 outlook misses consensus by about $1.5bn – roughly −22% after hours. Even then, the price sits above our SOTP base case.
Google Cloud doubles to $30.7bn, but search slows to +12% and free cash flow sits at −$9.1bn. After a 12.6% drop, the stock trades just below our SOTP base case.
AWS grows 39% and the operating margin hits a record 13.9%. Our SOTP base case rises from $217 to $224. After hours (≈ $227), the price is only about 1% above it.
Up 73% in twelve months and just below its all-time high. On earnings multiples in line with peers, but above the DCF base case – the market is pricing in a successful transition beyond Keytruda. Q3 results on Oct 29.
Q3 revenue +26% and a clear earnings beat – yet −7% the next day. Capex of up to $145bn turns free cash flow negative; the price sits almost exactly on the DCF base case.
Every valuation model lands at $22–121, the stock trades around $355. Roughly $1.2 trillion of market value is option value for Robotaxi, FSD and Optimus – and Q3 results arrive on Oct 21.
On today's revenue, sum-of-the-parts gives $27–70; on 2027 consensus $92–179. The stock has fallen 9% since the analysis and broken a key Fibonacci level.
Q3 unit sales +18.8%, gross margin up four quarters in a row, first positive FCF – and yet the stock has fallen another 14% since early September. Now it is testing the June low.
Profit guidance was nearly halved on the very day of this analysis – the stock barely reacted. The holding discount sits exactly at its historical norm, while the daily and weekly backtests contradict each other.
The cheapest name in its peer group on EV/EBITDA and forward P/E, with the highest margin – yet in a downtrend across all three technical horizons. Its own backtest contradicts the trend-following signal.
A conglomerate transforming into a holding company: the blended group DCF ignores the already separately traded stake values of TKMS and Nucera – two valuation methods, two completely different answers.
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