McDonald's Stock: DCF Valuation and Peer Comparison
MCDMcDonald's Corporation
Hybrid DCF/Graham-Dodd
Gross margin 57.4% TTM (<60%) → hybrid path: two-phase DCF (FCFF) as the base scenario, Graham-Dodd ($149.95–222.65) as an equally-weighted, conservative valuation floor. No SOTP is possible, since segment-level FCF/capex isn't disclosed.
Setup Logic & Risk/Reward
Setup Logic
Downtrend across all three horizons: price below the 20/50/200-day SMAs (daily) and the 10/40/100/200-week SMAs (weekly); death cross since May 8, 2026; a new 52-week low on Sep 11 at $252.15. RSI(14) at 31.2, close to oversold, but without capitulation volume (0.97x average) – no confirmed bottom formation.
Risk/Reward & Risk Check
With entry near the current price and a stop below the 5-year support zone, the risk/reward to the first target area at the 20/50-day SMAs is only around 0.6:1 – unfavorable as long as no bottom formation is confirmed. A better risk/reward ratio would only emerge from a lower, confirmed entry.
Trade Levels
Stop below the 5-year support zone ($222–230), TP1 at the 20/50-day SMAs ($263–268), TP2 at the 200-week line/200-day SMA ($288–295). Deliberately tight risk/reward – this is a value trade, not a trend-following one.
Macro Context Check
The VIX is at 15.84 (normal band) and the 10-year US yield is at 4.96% (steep at the long end of the curve) – with a beta of 0.414, MCD trades like a bond proxy and competes directly with bonds for buyers. A cyclosporiasis outbreak in summer 2026 has additionally weighed on restaurant stocks sector-wide.
Next catalyst: Q3 report on Nov 5, 2026 (consensus: EPS $3.40, revenue $7.32 billion), preceded by the dividend payment on Sep 16, 2026 ($1.86 per share).
The Devil's Advocate
"Without capitulation volume, an oversold RSI isn't a reversal signal – it just describes how far the move has already run."
The cheap-looking P/E overlooks that comparable sales fell by 4.4 and 6.0 percentage points in two consecutive quarters – by definition, that's a confirmed trend change, not an outlier. The market may be justifiably pricing in a structurally slower growth outlook with that low multiple.
The positive edge below the 200-day SMA comes from 4,805 of 15,147 trading days – the windows overlap heavily, so the effective independent sample is much smaller than n=4,805 suggests. Beware of over-interpreting a historical pattern as a buy signal.
Daily volume is running at only 0.97x the 20-day average – without capitulation volume, the classic signal of a completed bottom formation is missing. The price is "walking the lower Bollinger Band," which in established downtrends tends to argue for continuation rather than a reversal.
Interactive DCF Calculator
| Year | Projected FCF | Discount Factor | Present Value / PV |
|---|
Basis: FCFF TTM $9.04 billion (OCF + interest expense×(1-tax) − capex), net debt $39.04 billion, 707.6 million shares. As of Sep 11, 2026.
| Market Cap | $178.7 billion |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6x (peer median 22.8x) |
| P/E (ttm) | 20.5x (10y median 26.7x) |
| ROIC | 25.5% |
| Operating Margin | 46.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.95% |
| Analyst Rating | 4 SB / 15 B / 14 H / 1 S |
| Median Price Target | $314.81 |
Classic trend-following sell signals have historically not worked for MCD: after a death cross, the average 20-day return was +1.34% (65.1% hit rate vs. a 58.1% baseline). The regime view is more robust: below the 200-week line, the average 52-week forward return was historically +25.53% (68.0% hit rate) versus +14.50% above it – weakness phases were the more rewarding, but also more dispersed, entry points for MCD.