thyssenkrupp Stock: Graham-Dodd Valuation Amid the Restructuring
TKA.DEthyssenkrupp AG
SOTP primary, DCF & Graham-Dodd supplementary
As a holding company in transformation (TKMS spun off, a tk accelis IPO planned for 2026), a sum-of-the-parts view is more informative than a pure group-level DCF. The blended DCF (bear €0–1/base €5.3/bull €14.9) underestimates the already separately-traded stake value; Graham-Dodd (bear €6.5/base €17.5/bull €30.3) serves here as a valuation floor.
Setup Logic & Risk/Reward
Setup Logic
All three technical horizons are bullish: golden cross (50/200-day SMA, daily) since May 28, 2026, price above all moving averages. The stock has more than sextupled since its all-time low (€2.08, Sep 2024), but still trades 58% below its 2007 all-time high. Weekly RSI at 70.4 (borderline overbought), price most recently at the upper Bollinger Band – a mature but intact trend.
Risk/Reward & Risk Check
With entry in the pullback zone around the 50-day SMA (€12.43) and a stop below the support zone (€11.40), the risk/reward to the most recent high (€15.18) works out to roughly 2.2:1 – considerably more attractive than chasing the price at the upper Bollinger Band.
Trade Levels
Stop below the support zone (€11.40), TP1 at the most recent high (€15.18), TP2 at the Graham-Dodd base case (€17.50). This setup is built around a pullback rather than chasing the overheated weekly price.
Macro Context Check
The 10-year German Bund yield is at 3.34% (roughly 17% higher than at the start of the year) – a fundamentally challenging rate environment for capital-intensive industrials. The VIX is at 14.95, in the "complacent" zone; the strong rally is therefore primarily driven by restructuring and stake-value gains, not by rates.
Next catalyst: full-year FY2025/26 results on Dec 8, 2026; the bigger structural catalyst remains the tk accelis IPO announced for 2026 (Bank of America estimate: ~€3.5 billion).
The Devil's Advocate
"The group-level DCF says €5.3, the stock trades at €14.01 – anyone who doesn't trust the SOTP story sees not an opportunity here, but overvaluation."
The blended group-level DCF produces only €5.3 per share in the base case – well below the €14.01 price. Anyone who doesn't trust the SOTP logic, because the TKMS and Nucera stake values rest on press estimates rather than audited figures, sees the stock as clearly overvalued.
Order intake fell 24% year-over-year in Q3 (€7.7 vs. €10.1 billion) – a warning sign for revenue momentum in the coming quarters that's easy to overlook amid the excitement of the restructuring story.
On a weekly basis, the price sits at the upper Bollinger Band with an RSI of 70.4 (bordering on overbought) – a mature, overheated trend. Our own regime analysis also shows that the current uptrend regime has historically delivered the weakest forward return of any state (+0.4% over 52 weeks, only a 45–55% hit rate).
Interactive Graham-Dodd Calculator
| Variable | Value | ||
|---|---|---|---|
Basis: Y = 10y Bund yield (3.34%) + 1.0pp spread = 4.34%. EPS consensus: FY24/25 €0.75 (last positive actual), FY26/27e €1.19, FY27/28e €1.46. Formula: V = EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 4.4 / Y.
| Market Cap | ~€8.6 billion |
| P/B (24/25) | 0.59x |
| EV/EBITDA (24/25) | 2.85x |
| TKMS Stake Value (51%) | >€3.0 billion |
| Nucera Stake Value (66%) | ~€0.66 billion |
| Golden Cross (Daily) | May 28, 2026 |
| Q3 Order Intake | -24% YoY |
On a weekly basis, RSI oversold signals (n=60) show a clearly positive continuation (+12.6% over 12 weeks, 72% hit rate). Regime detection (40-day SMA vs. 100-day SMA), with a larger sample, paints a surprising picture: downtrend-regime phases historically delivered higher 52-week forward returns (+19.2%, 50–61% hit rate) than the current uptrend regime (+0.4%, 45–55% hit rate) – meaning the current trend no longer offers statistically above-average tailwind.